By: Admin
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| Dr. Adewunmi Falode |
Head
of Department, History and International Studies, Lagos State University, Ojo,
Dr Adewunmi Falode, tells GRACE
EDEMA of PUNCH that
if Russia conquers Ukraine in the ongoing war, it will encourage more
aggressive countries to oppress other countries
Putin said
the media should not describe the attack on Ukraine as a war, or invasion but
as a special military operation. Is it an invasion or a war, or a special
military operation?
Well, let me say this from a
layman’s perspective: Beauty is always in the eyes of the beholder. In war, the
two sides usually engage in what is called propaganda. Propaganda in the sense
that, of course, you want to get people’s sympathy on your side. Of course, you
wouldn’t want to be seen as the aggressor. Even if you are the aggressor you
try to justify the reasons behind your carrying out a military operation. That
is exactly what Putin is trying to do. Don’t get me wrong – the Russians are
lying, the Ukrainians are also lying. I mean everything is okay in warfare. The
important thing is to get the international media, the spectators, neutral
countries, on your side. That’s why Putin is trying to say it’s just a special
military operation; “that it’s not a war like we are calling it. It’s like two
brothers fighting and outsiders should not be involved.” That’s why Putin came
up with that idea. Putin wouldn’t want any outside involvement. Like I said it
is the usual practice in warfare. There is an element of propaganda – to always
try to let people see things from your own perspective. That is one, two, you
always try to get them on your side.
You
said something like Russia and Ukraine are not coming out with the truth. Is
the issue more than what is in the public domain, which is really about
Ukraine’s membership of NATO? Are there other background issues that are not
open to the public?
In every warfare, we
don’t always have a mono-causal factor. What is happening now may not have been
the major factor responsible for the war. There are underlying factors –
historical factors, economic factors, even social factors could be responsible
for this war. The Russians and the Ukrainians are ethnically related. There is
a problem that Russia has and that is security. Russia is a very, very flat
country. When I say flat, that is, it has no natural barrier against foreign
aggression or invasion. So the best that Russia could use to protect itself is
for Russia to invade its neighbours and subjugate them to Russian rule so that
if anybody is going to invade Russia, they have to get through those
neighbours; the Russians would have been adequately prepared to repel the
invaders. If Russia
subjugates its neighbours, it will not be easy for any foreign country to
invade or attack Russia. Before they can get to Russia, they will have to
destroy their neighbours first. That’s the basis of Russia going after the
countries around it. Countries like Ukraine, Belarus, and Azerbaijan. At one
point or another, Russia actually colonised them. There is that tacit agreement
between them when USSR collapsed in 1991, that look; I know you are
independent, but my security matters as Russia, and your own security matters
as independent states. Do not do anything that will jeopardise my sovereign
integrity. That is, Russia told them: Don’t do anything that will jeopardise my
sovereign integrity on my interest. Now, Ukraine is trying to become a member
of NATO and, of course, the EU was a big problem for Russia. If Ukraine should
join NATO or the EU, that means automatically Ukraine is bringing Russia’s
number one enemy closer to its border, and that is the United States of
America. That is the major factor responsible for the ongoing war.
What are the implications of this war for Africa, even other countries,
as of today, inflation in Egypt has risen to 10%?
Ukraine is the breadbasket for Europe. When
I say breadbasket I mean a huge percentage of the world’s wheat comes from
Ukraine. Not only that during the Cold War, but Ukraine was also within the
Russian orbit, it was an economic powerhouse for the Soviet Republic then. In
fact, it elevated Ukraine to a second-world country, not even a third-world
country. Most of Russia’s energy supply passed through Ukraine to the rest of
Europe. The bulk of Russia’s natural resources is tied up within Siberia. So to
get those things from Siberia, through Russia to Western Europe, you know
Russia is the major energy supplier. That pipe has to go through Ukraine to the
rest of Europe. That is how important Ukraine is to Europe’s economy. Ninety
per cent of European oil and gas goes through Ukraine to the rest of Western
Europe. So Ukraine is strategic to the Russian economy, to the European
economy, then to Ukraine itself. Of course, if there’s going to be warfare,
there would be large-scale disruption to European energy suppliers. Egypt is a
bread-eating country. 90% of their wheat, they get it from Ukraine. Since there
is disruption, of course, there will be inflation. Then again there is a
particular oil that they use – we call it our own vegetable oil – Ukraine is
the major producer of sunflower oil presently. So most countries in the world
get it from Ukraine. Sunflower oil is said to be the best – it is good for the
heart and all those things. Of course, now since the war is going on, nobody
will have time for cultural activities – importing and exporting. It will
disrupt lots of economies. Of course, it’s going to affect Nigeria. We buy
wheat from Ukraine too. This is an interdependent thing. Most times we just
eat; we don’t know where that stuff is coming from. You can now hear the
chatter Nigeria: Honeywell is stepping up to fill the gap. Flour Mills is now
stepping up to fill the gap. This is the opportunity for Nigeria to be
dependent; to look for a way to produce what we eat; and so on and so forth.
Again, it boils down to fact that I said Ukraine is the breadbasket in Europe.
In fact, it is this war that made everybody realise how important Ukraine is to
the world economy. That’s why some countries in Europe are very reluctant – in
fact, Hungary is the closest ally of Russia. Hungary was very reluctant to
impose sanctions on Russia; that look, if we impose sanctions on these guys it
will affect our own energy supply. It was the same reason Germany was very reluctant
too in imposing sanctions on Russia because it was going to affect their
economy. Fine, Russia has done wrong; no problem. But then if they try to
punish Russia, it should not be at the expense of our own economy. Ukraine is
central to all of this because almost all energy
supply to Europe passes through Ukraine to the rest of them. That’s why they
are measured and careful with their response. So they are in a serious dilemma.
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Is
it only about wheat, that it might affect Nigeria or others?
Well, again
the wider geopolitical significance is important. If Russia should get away
with what it is doing now in Ukraine, its action will send the wrong signals to
other states within Africa. For example, if we don’t like the Benin Republic,
Nigeria can just go and take over Benin Republic. China is watching what is
going on and in Taiwan, they are having sleepless nights. That’s the wider
geopolitical implications. If Russia should succeed in this Ukraine venture,
China has always been on the neck of Taiwan that it is not an independent
state, it is only America that is helping Taiwan to survive. If Russia should
get away then it is a green light, China may go ahead with its plan for Taiwan.
What
lessons should other countries learn from this so far?
One lesson is you are on your
own. Don’t rely on the international community. A state should know how to look
out for itself to protect its own interest. Under the balance of power
(theory), there are just two methods of survival for the weak and the strong:
alliance and bandwagoning. Choose your friends very carefully; you also choose
your enemies very carefully because under international relations there are no
permanent friends or enemies, what matters most is your interest. Every country
should define its own interest and they would know the best way to achieve that
interest. After all the Russia that we are castigating today, they are the only
country that truly helped Nigeria during the Nigerian Civil War. Britain and
America abandoned Nigeria. Russia came on the side of Nigeria and they gave us
weapons. Again, not because they love but simply because of interest. It was a
period of the Cold War so they were still looking for friends in Africa. Every
country in the world would have to look after their own interest. It’s just
that simple.
What
further role can United Nations play to put this war to an end?
Actually, this was exactly how
the Second World War started when the League of Nations failed to play its role
in mediating between Germany and the other countries. I saw the League of
Nations has been ineffective. If this UN had been effective, the war wouldn’t
have broken out in the first instance. The major reason they established the UN
was to maintain international peace and security. If it had been effective in
that role then we wouldn’t have had this war. This was a slow-motion war.
Everybody saw it. I mean it happened in 2014; they took Crimea. As far I’m
concerned the UN’s role is ineffective in this kind of situation maybe they
should reassess the role of the UN and other international bodies.
Source: PUNCH