By: Manoah Kikekon
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| Samuel Mawuyon Ajose and APC |
The political atmosphere in Lagos State is already charging up as the 2027 gubernatorial race begins to take shape. Central to this conversation is the persistent "marginalization" of the Badagry Division. For decades, the division has remained the only one among the five traditional administrative zones of Lagos (IBILE) yet to produce a governor.
This historical void has led to the emergence of Samuel Mawutin Ajose (SMA), a prominent son of Badagry, whose governorship aspirations under the All Progressives Congress (APC) have sparked both hope and heavy skepticism. While SMA’s courage is undeniable, a critical look at the internal dynamics of the ruling party suggests that his current trajectory may be hitting a brick wall.
All indications point to a systemic gatekeeping process that has historically favored candidates handpicked by the party’s hierarchy. If the goal is truly to break the "hegemony" that has kept Badagry in the political shadows, Badagry social advocates are now asking: is it time for SMA to look beyond the APC?
The "Alausa Kingmaker" Factor
The politics of Lagos State since 1999 has been defined by a structured succession plan. As noted by political analyst Babajide Akran, the influence of President Bola Ahmed Tinubu remains the deciding factor in who occupies the Alausa seat. Since 2007, the "selection" process has often favored individuals who fit a specific political philosophy usually those without a pre-existing independent power structure.
This presents a direct challenge for SMA. Unlike previous beneficiaries of the system who were relatively unknown before their emergence, SMA is seen as an independent force with his own financial muscle and a growing grassroots structure. In the world of a Lagos APC political stateman, "independence is often viewed as a threat to the established order rather than an asset."
The Party Chairman "Trap"
One of the most telling signs that the APC may not be ready for a Badagry governor is the current position of Pastor Cornelius Ojelabi as the State Party Chairman. Historically, political parties do not zone the chairmanship and the governorship to the same division.
By "cleverly positioning" a Badagry son to lead the party, the APC may have effectively managed expectations and neutralized the division’s claim to the governorship seat for the upcoming cycle.
This strategic move by the party leadership serves as a buffer. It allows the party to claim that Badagry is "represented" at the highest level of decision-making, while simultaneously making it technically and politically difficult to justify handing the gubernatorial ticket to the same zone.
A Strategic Alternative: The Senatorial Route?
Many stakeholders, including Akran, have suggested that a more pragmatic entry point for SMA would have been the Lagos West Senatorial seat. This path is often seen as a "strong entry point" into the inner sanctum of power. By securing a legislative seat, a candidate builds the necessary political capital and "federal weight" required to negotiate for the governorship in the future.
However, the counter-argument is that Badagry has waited long enough. Proponents of the "Badagry for Governor" Badagry advocates argue that negotiating for a "lesser" seat is exactly how the division has been kept out of Alausa for so long. They believe that settling for a senatorial or deputy role only prolongs the unjust treatment of the division.
Breaking the One-Party Hegemony
Perhaps the most radical but necessary argument being raised is the need for a multi-party approach. Lagos has long been perceived as a one-party state, which has given the ruling elite the leeway to overlook certain divisions without fear of electoral consequences. If the APC continues to shut its doors against a Badagry candidate, should SMA consider another political party come 2027?
Moving to another political party could amplify the decision of the people and force a real conversation about equity. It would break the "selection over election" cycle that has dominated Lagos politics. A Senior Journalist from Badagry noted that the current system favors those who rely on the "center" for everything structure and finance. By running on an alternative platform, SMA could test the true strength of the Badagry vote.
Defining the Motive: Is it for the People?
Ultimately, the question remains: is SMA’s interest in the seat truly for the people of Badagry? If the collective goal of the division is socio-economic development, infrastructure, and a seat at the table, then the strategy must be flexible. The people of Badagry want progress, and if the APC remains an immovable object, SMA must become the "unstoppable force" by exploring every available political avenue.
The bravery shown by SMA has already inspired a rare sense of unity across the division. Whether he stays to fight within the APC or seeks a fresh mandate elsewhere, the "status quo" in Lagos politics is finally being challenged. For Badagry, the time for "managing expectations" is over; the time for a strategic, perhaps unconventional, move is now.