By: Manoah Kikekon
 |
| Supporters of Uganda opposition leader and National Unity Platform (NUP) presidential candidate Robert Kyagulanyi Ssentamu, popularly known as Bobi Wine, chant slogans while holding a flag bearing his face during the party’s final campaign rally ahead of the 2026 general elections, in Kampala on January 12, 2026. (Photo by Luis TATO / AFP) |
KAMPALA, Uganda — As the tropical sky darkened over the capital, a somber yet defiant crowd gathered at the home of an imprisoned leader. For members of Uganda’s long-embattled opposition, the prayers held this Sunday were not just a spiritual exercise but a desperate plea for a nation they claim is slipping into a permanent military dictatorship. With only days remaining until Thursday’s high-stakes election, the atmosphere in Kampala is thick with tension and the heavy presence of security forces.
Addressing the gathering, Kampala Mayor Erias Lukwago framed the upcoming vote as a "face-off" between a disenfranchised populace and the iron-fisted governance of President Yoweri Museveni. Lukwago’s rhetoric was grim, telling supporters they fell into two categories: "political prisoners and potential political prisoners."
President Museveni, now 81, has governed the East African nation since 1986. Having seized power as a guerrilla commander, he has maintained his grip through a combination of savvy political maneuvering and the "near-total control" of the state’s security apparatus. Critics argue that the democratic process in Uganda is now nothing more than a "thin veneer" designed to mask a rigid military state.
The ‘War’ on the Opposition
The lead-up to this election has been defined by a brutal crackdown. Bobi Wine (born Robert Kyagulanyi), the pop-star-turned-politician who leads the National Unity Platform (NUP), has been forced to wear a flak jacket during public appearances, describing the campaign trail as a "war." His experience is not unique; hundreds of supporters have been detained, and at least one has been killed in clashes that the police dismiss as confrontations with "hooligans."
The suppression extends beyond Uganda's borders. Kizza Besigye, a veteran opposition figure, was reportedly abducted in Kenya in late 2024 and smuggled back to a Ugandan military prison. His wife, UNAIDS Director Winnie Byanyima, echoed the sentiment of many at Sunday's prayer meeting, stating, “There’s total capture of state institutions by the individual who holds military power.”
Systemic Repression and ‘Ghetto Structures’
Analysts suggest the state's tactics have become increasingly sophisticated. According to Jude Kagoro, a researcher at the University of Bremen, the police do not view themselves as neutral peacekeepers but as defenders of the incumbent. The government has also implemented "ghetto structures" a system where security officials recruit and pay local youth in opposition strongholds to spy on and dismantle anti-government activities.
This infrastructure of surveillance and force is a direct response to the 2021 elections, where Wine’s popularity among urban youth caught the regime off guard. This time, the state appears ready for any unrest. “For the last four-plus years, they have been building an infrastructure that can withstand any sort of pressure,” Kagoro noted.
A Regional Trend of Authoritarianism
Uganda is not alone in its shift toward heightened state control. Rights groups have pointed to a disturbing trend across East Africa, citing similar abductions and election-related violence in Tanzania and Kenya. This regional coordination of repression has made the "price of participation" prohibitively high for many citizens.
As Thursday approaches, the government has issued a stern directive: vote and go home immediately. For the opposition, this is a clear attempt at voter intimidation. While a core group of supporters remains, experts like Kristof Titeca of Antwerp University warn that grassroots organizing has become "way too dangerous," leaving the future of Ugandan democracy hanging by a thread.